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Title: USING TIME SERIES ANALYSIS AND ARIMA MODEL IN DROUGHT SIMULATION (A CASE STUDY: FARS PROVINCE, IRAN)

Author: S. A. Shamsnia, N. Pirmoradian and M. Manshouri

Year: 2009

Publisher: European Water Resources Association (EWRA)

Description:

Drought is one of the most important natural disasters that can affect sectors with its very much frequency particularly in dry and semidry areas of Iran. Lack of raining has various effects on agriculture, surface water and groundwater resources, humidity of soil and rivers. Regarding the location of Fars province in dry and semidry climate area and the incidence of repeated drought, especially in recent years, has led to pay more attention to drought simulation and forecasting. Quantitative description of environmental process, the anticipation and estimation of its behavior at the time and situations without observation and sample, requires having a pattern and model of that process. One of the methods to access the goal of simulation in drought incident is the use of time series model. In this study, the raining statistics of 90 stations of pluviometry and synoptic in Fars province were used 30 years of statistic period. To determine the grade of drought severity, the standardized precipitation index (SPI) was also used due to its advantages in local analysis and establishing time relationship between
drought incidents. Determination of desirable local model according to drought condition of Fars province was conducted after drought severity monitoring and evaluation. The suitable model for each region was provided by using time series analysis and based on provided local pattern in different regions of Fars province. The ARIMA method was selected in drought incident simulation using time series models based on the Autocorrelation and Partial-autocorrelation. Considering stability, parameters, and different methods, all probable models were  evaluated and the most suitable model was selected and presented for drought simulation in each region.