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Title: PREDICTION OF CROP PRODUCTION USING THE STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION INDEX (SPI) AND CLIMATIC FACTORS TO MANAGE DROUGHT RISK: CASE STUDY HEMADAN, IRAN

Author: M.R. Behbahani, S.M. Sadat Noori, M.H. Nazarifar

Year: 2009

Publisher: European Water Resources Association (EWRA)

Description:

Drought causes a great damage to dry and water farming. Therefore, finding a scientific and suitable way to avoid the harmful effects of drought is essential. Thus, proceeding to agricultural drought risk management can be very useful. For this, we considered two steps, the first step is to evaluate drought, based on indices that can determine its intensity and continuity rate. In which the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is the most important one. The second step is to predict the reduction of crop production when drought happens. Having a
clear prediction, we can plan for a more considerate farming. To do this, we need to scrutinize the relation between the SPI index and crop production. The goal of this paper is to evaluate and recognize drought’s that have occurred in the region and examine significant correlation between the SPI index at one, three and six
month time-scales and dry farming wheat production. Precipitation data from twenty weather stations were used for the calculation of SPI. Monthly evapotranspiration for all station were calculated with both Penman and Thornthwaite method. Wheat production data were obtained from the agriculture ministry and at the end, all the collected information was analyzed with the SPSS software. The results show significant correlation among crop production, SPI index, evapotranspiration and temperature. As, from the several SPI time-scales, the one and three month SPI had a stronger correlation with crop production. The predictive model for the region allows crop prediction with the SPI index within drought assess time.