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Title: STUDY, ANALYZES AND FORECAST OF SURFACE WATER - LAKHMES DAM

Author: H. Lakhdar and Med. Bergaoui

Year: 2009

Publisher: European Water Resources Association (EWRA)

Description:

In the present study, we tried to show the importance of the stochastic modeling of the monthly surface water of the Lakhmes dam, 36 years of observation, for the management and the exploitation of dam storage to the profile of an irrigated perimeter of 474 ha. The catchments area of the study is in the Siliana region, Northern western of Tunisia, in semi-arid zone with relief very contrasted and with cereal vocation. The rainfalls average lies between 400 and 450 millimeters .It is characterized by one wet and cold winter and a dry and hot summer. This work made the object of the bibliographical analysis, the investigations of ground and the collection and the data analysis. Thus, following the exploratory statistical analysis, we studied the normality and the stationary of the surface water series on a monthly scale. The series observed presents a non normal behavior. We highlighted a control break in the long-term behavior of the series. The series, standardized and transformed, was modeled by an auto-regression model with moving average. The tests of validation of the model selected are conclusive. This attempt of modeling of surface water by the stochastic approach seems to be interesting for a rigorous management and optimal exploitation of water resources, useful for the perimeter irrigated.