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Title: EVALUATION OF THE FUTURE OPERATION OF THE RESTORED LAKE KARLA RESERVOIR UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE

Author: A. Loukas, G. Patsonas, L. Vasiliades

Year: 2009

Publisher: European Water Resources Association (EWRA)

Description:

This study evaluates, through stochastic simulation, the operation of the restored Lake Karla’s reservoir in Thessaly. The future timeseries of monthly precipitation and mean monthly temperature have been produced through downscaling techniques using the results of the Canadian Centre for Climate Model Analysis General Circulation Model (CGCMa2). A stochastic methodology has been developed to downscale the outputs of GCM and produce future precipitation timeseries. The methodology combines a multiple regression (MLR) model and a
stochastic timeseries model for the precipitation residuals between the observed and the downscaled precipitation through the MLR model. The mean monthly temperature was downscaled by a simple MLR model. The downscaling methods have been developed for the historical base period 1960-1990, validated for the period 1990-2002, and, then, used for the generation of the future timeseries for the periods 2020-2050 and 2070-2100 for SRESA2 and SRESB2 socioeconomic scenarios. The generated meteorological timeseries have been used as input data in a monthly water balance model (UTHBAL) and a reservoir operation model which balances the inflows, outflows and the change of water storage and posses a constrain on the reservoir water level for wetland preservation. The underconstruction reservoir of the Lake Karla designed to cover the large irrigation water demands. The historical and future water demands estimated using the Near Irrigation Requirement and estimates of the water efficiency of the water distribution system and irrigation methods for the existing cultivation pattern and for a management scenario which combines crop cultivation pattern change
according to European Union Common Agricultural Policy and improved water efficiency of the water distribution and irrigation system. The results indicated that the Lake Karla reservoir although satisfactorily covers the present climate water demands, it fails to satisfy the future climate water demands, even for the
moderate SRESB2 scenario and the improved water management scenario.