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Title: A RISK ANALYSIS FRAMEWORK FOR EVALUATING FAILURE OF WATER MAINS

Author: P. Aslani and S. Christodoulou

Year: 2009

Publisher: European Water Resources Association (EWRA)

Description:

This paper presents analysis results of degradation modeling for water distribution systems in urban environments. The system is based on data from New York City (1982-2002) and the application of parametric and non-parametric survival analysis. Artificial Neural Network techniques are also employed for the identification of the underlying risk factors and their relevance to water main breaks (about 12 factors were reviewed, including age of pipe, diameter, material, location, previous breaks, etc.). The statistical models used were calibrated for different groups of pipes and a combination of parametric (Weibull distributions) and non-parametric models (Kaplan-Meier survival curves) were utilized to investigate the suitability of them to the estimation of pipe degradation and the forecasted "time to next failure (break)". The research aims the development of a framework of risk analysis models for the degradation of water distribution systems.